Can Wil Myers lift the Rays?

On Sunday, the Tampa Bay Rays called up Wil Myers. I was going to write that it was about time the weak-hitting Rays called up one of the top hitting prospects in the league, but then I looked at the team's hitting stats.

They're tied for 1st in the majors in wRC+, they're 5th in WAR, wOBA, and BB%, 7th in ISO and HRs... whatever hitting stat you look at, the Rays are in the top 10-15 in baseball. Far from weak-hitting.

In fact, when you look at their entire team, pitching is by far the biggest reason why they're in fourth place right now. It hasn't been atrocious, but it hasn't been good, especially considering their pre-season expectations.

So, will adding a bat as potentially dynamic as Myers's make much of a difference? Well, it's a complicated situ... NO, he will not make a significant impact.

The best-case scenario is that he'll provide around 5-6 wins of value. That's if he lights the world on fire, a la Trout last season, which isn't likely. 4 wins would even be a stretch. But let's say he does get close to that level. There are 24 other factors -- his teammates -- out of his control. 

Evan Longoria is on the short list for AL MVP at this point in the season, but with his health history, it's probably safer to bet that he'll miss some time and/or play hurt than it is to expect him to keep this pace up. James Loney has been one of the biggest surprises so far this season, but given that his current WAR (1.6) is almost the highest he's ever had in a single season, expect some major regression to the Loney in the second half. I'm a little more optimistic that Ben Zobrist, Matt Joyce, Kelly Johnson, and Desmond Jennings will either continue hitting or get better, but they're probably 3-win players, at best, when it's all said and done.

Jennings might actually be a good comp for Myers. Jennings was also a top outfield prospect for the Rays, and he had a very nice rookie season in 2011, netting 2.3 WAR in just 287 plate appearances. Myers will likely play more than that, so if he can approach Jennings's .259/.358/.449 line over these next four months, he'll be an upgrade over anyone besides Longoria.

But that won't make a difference if his teammates regress like I mentioned above. Sure, if he's worth 2-4 wins more than the guy he replaces, he might be the difference between a playoff team and a team that just misses, but that would have to coincide with sustained success from his fellow batters and huge improvement from the pitching staff. The division is too good for them to be average or worse in one of those areas.

Then, there's the very realistic chance that Myers barely produces. None of us know if he'll make any impact in the big leagues, much less an immediate impact. 

Like I said, if he plays anywhere near his potential, the Rays might get the extra boost they need to win a close division or wild card race. But he's not going to turn the current 36-33 team into a juggernaut all by himself. The Rays are going to need every pitcher not named Alex Cobb or Joel Peralta to improve and improve dramatically. The other hitters have to keep up their success, as well. As we saw with Trout last year, even a historically good season by a player on a good team doesn't guarantee a postseason appearance.