Earlier today, the Toronto Blue Jays agreed on a contract extension of two years and $25 million for R.A. Dickey. In order for Dickey to be traded to the Blue Jays, Toronto needed to agree to extend his contract, something he had requested from the Mets many times during this off-season.
The entire trade goes like this: Dickey and catchers Josh Thole and Mike Nickeas will go to the Jays in exchange for catcher John Buck, minor-league outfielder Wuilmer Becerra, pitching prospect Noah Syndergaard, and elite catching prospect Travis d'Arnaud.
Some people are comparing this trade to the one the Royals and Rays made last week, but I don't think this is nearly as one-sided. On the surface, this trade does seem similar because one of the best hitting prospects in the game (d'Arnaud) and a solid pitching prospect (Syndergaard) are being traded for an above-average major league pitcher (Dickey)*. The big difference is that the Blue Jays are much closer to contention than the Royals.
*Thole and Buck are basically the same player, so they cancel out, in my mind, like Wade Davis and the Royals' non-Will Myers prospects that were sent to Tampa Bay in last week's big trade.
Unlike the Royals, who still have many holes in their roster even with the acquisition of James Shields, the Blue Jays have an playoff-looking team on paper. We all remember the blockbuster trade Toronto made with the Marlins about a month ago, acquiring Jose Reyes, Josh Johnson, Mark Buehrle, Emilio Bonifacio, and the trade-magnet John Buck. Reyes, Johnson, and Buehrle could be worth a combined 10 WAR next season if they stay healthy and perform like they have in the past. Even if these three don't perform up to that level, they should still be an upgrade from what the Blue Jays had in those spots last year.
Toronto should also expect some improvement from several of the players on their roster last season. Jose Bautista only played 92 games last year due to injury. Brandon Morrow also missed a bunch time because he was hurt. Ricky Romero went from a +3 to +4 win pitcher his first three seasons to barely above replacement level last season. Brett Lawrie, Colby Rasmus, and J.P. Arencibia are all young and talented but were average to below-average last season. This team probably would have won around 80 games had they merely avoided those major injuries to Bautista and Morrow (among many other players who suffered injuries last season). Better years from Romero and those three young position players might have propelled them into playoff contention.
If these key players can stay healthy and perform better than they did last year – along with significant contributions from their new acquisitions – this team could be scary in 2013. In fact, Toronto looked like a fringe contender even before this trade for Dickey was finalized. Given all the pieces the Blue Jays had, they could have realistically said that they were one or two players away from being a legitimate playoff contender.
This is why I’m fine with this trade from Toronto’s side. They have a very real shot at making the playoffs this year, unlike the Royals who will need a ton of things to go right in order to contend. Sure, giving up d’Arnaud and Syndergaard (Toronto's #1 and #3 prospects, respectively, according to Baseball America) is a steep price to pay but those players most likely wouldn’t have made the impact in 2013 that Dickey will.
Dickey, by the way, has been an excellent pitcher for three straight seasons , not just 2012. He is fairly old (38) but he’s also a knuckleball pitcher, and knuckleballers have proven to be both durable and effective well into their forties (as guys like Tim Wakefield and Phil Niekro have shown). Dickey’s a pretty safe bet to continue to be a good pitcher.
The Mets, meanwhile, made a very smart move given the state of their franchise. Giving up a fan-favorite who just won the Cy Young Award is not an easy decision but given the prospects the Jays offered in exchange for Dickey, it was a no-brainer.
The Mets finished fourth in the NL East last season while getting a Cy Young-winning season out of Dickey and an MVP-caliber season out of David Wright. This shows the lack of depth the Mets had among the rest of their roster, and I’m sure the front office took this into account when they decided to shop Dickey instead of giving him an extension. The Mets knew their team wasn’t on the verge of World Series contention and decided to try to build up their farm system.
They have some very talented young players, too. 23 year-old pitcher Matt Harvey was excellent in the 59.1 innings he threw for the Mets last year after his mid-season call-up and looks like a potential top-of-the-rotation starting pitcher. Zach Wheeler (22 years old) is one of the best pitching prospects in baseball and will probably see the big leagues in 2013. Ruben Tejada (23) is a promising young shortstop and first baseman Ike Davis (25) – who does strike out a lot – is a very powerful hitter who can get on base. Now with d’Arnaud (23) and Syndergaard (20), the Mets have a promising core of young players to go along with their superstar, Wright (who’s only 29).
The Mets are getting the better end of the deal just because d’Arnaud and Syndergaard are such promising prospects, but the Blue Jays certainly didn’t get robbed. Even if Dickey massively disappoints, Toronto should still be happy they made this trade. Playoffs are not an unreasonable expectation and Dickey was one of the more risk-free players on the market. If you’re going to go all in for one or two seasons, this is the way to do it.
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