Thursday, June 20, 2013

Mike Trout, underrated?

I'm by no means a slave to WAR, and it's still early in the season, but check out FanGraphs's leaderboard:

1) Miguel Cabrera -- 4.4 WAR
t-2) Chris Davis -- 4.2
t-2) Carlos Gomez -- 4.2
4) Mike Trout -- 4.1

Baseball-Reference doesn't even have him in the top-10 for position players, so, again, this doesn't mean a ton, but I still find this incredible.Trout's 2013 campaign hasn't been much worse than his historic rookie season, yet he seems to be getting far less recognition.

There are plenty of logical reasons for this lack of acclaim, of course. The three guys in front of him, especially Cabrera and Davis, are having absurd seasons. Cabrera has a .456 wOBA with an absurd .361/.452/.632 slash line. Davis has been Barry Bonds without as many rubber chickens, hitting .337/.413/.720 (.468 wOBA). If Gomez took any walks, he'd basically be replicating Trout's 2012 season. 

So, Cabrera has somehow improved from the plate this season, while Davis and Gomez have come out of nowhere to put up dominant numbers. Trout has not just played below their levels, but his 2012 level, as well, so while his numbers are spectacular, they haven't stood out. 

He also plays for the Angels, who are 8 games under .500, with two highly-paid, struggling sluggers in Albert Pujols and Josh Hamilton, and an ace (Jered Weaver) who has been injured for most of the season. Trout's success has been massively overshadowed by the disappointment surrounding his team, which isn't surprising given how high expectations were in Anaheim before the season.

There's also Bryce Harper, who has been Kevin Durant to Trout's LeBron after also having a fantastic rookie season. Harper came mashing out of the gate this season, causing people to focus more on the him than Trout. Like Cabrera, Harper went from great to greater, whereas Trout has been about the same. People always gravitate more towards players who take a step forward (or a step back, like Pujols) than those who stay consistently dominant. 

It's not even insulting for people to be underrating Trout's 2013 season. All of us would rather focus on someone like Davis or Harper. It's human nature. Still, the fact that Trout is having almost as good of a season this year as he did last year -- a year that very few players in MLB history have ever approached -- is just ridiculous.

He's hitting for about the same amount of power this season, and he's still running the bases exceptionally well (3rd in Ultimate Baserunning Rating), while walking more and striking out less. His UZR is only 0.5, although I wonder if his increased playing time in left field is the main reason.* I haven't watched him enough this season to know how good of a defender he's been.

*He has less ground to cover in left, which means there are less UZR-increasing plays available for him to make, especially with defensive wizard Peter Bourjos manning center field. That might not be the reason for the low numbers, though.

It's obviously way too early to tell if Trout will finish the season with numbers as good or better than last season's. His sophomore slump might occur after July. That said, it's insane that this guy hasn't stopped producing like Willie Mays in his prime. If he keeps playing this well for the rest of the season, we will have a hard time distinguishing his performance this year from last. He also might finish second in the MVP race to Cabrera again.

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