Yesterday, former Red Sox and White Sox third baseman Kevin Youkilis made a verbal agreement to join the New York Yankees on a one-year, $12 million deal. The Greek God of Walks is coming off by far his worst season in the majors, hitting .235/.336/.409 with 1.3 WAR.
Some may think Youkilis is done being the productive player he was in his prime years in Boston but I expect him to have a rebound season in 2013, although I think his numbers will look more like his 2011 stats (.258/.373/.459, 3.7 WAR) than his they did in his 2008-2009 seasons.
Youkilis has played six full seasons in his career (I'm including his injury-shortened 2010 season), and the lowest WAR he had in the five years before 2012 was 2.6 in 2006, which was still a very good season from the plate. For a player who isn't too old (33 right now), last season seems much more like a fluke than a sign of progressing regression. I feel much more confident projecting Youkilis based off of five previous good seasons than one bad one.
Youkilis will probably never again perform like he did in 2008-2009, but if the Yankees get close to the 2011 version of Youkilis, this deal is a theft. However, even if Youkilis performs like he did last year, this is still a good deal by the Yanks.
Before signing Youkilis, the only third baseman on the Yankees' roster was Alex Rodriguez, who is going to be out 4-6 months after he gets hip surgery in January. Eric Chavez was a solid fill-in for A-Rod when he was hurt/slumping last season, but Chavez signed with Arizona about a week ago. So Youkilis is not only a historically good player, he also fills a huge need in the Yankees' roster.
His defense at third base has been declining the last few seasons but A-Rod hasn't been a Gold Glover at the hot corner, either, and as we saw with the Tigers this past season, a terrible defender at third base doesn't always kill a team.
Youkilis had a bad offensive season in 2012 but he still did the two most important things a hitter can do (at a reasonably high level): got on base and hit home runs. His OBP was .101 points higher than his batting average at an above league average .336 and he hit 19 home runs combined between his time with both Sox teams. He's always going to draw walks (hence is nickname), which is always a valuable commodity for a team.
All Youkilis has to do is be decent during A-Rod's absence. The Yankees have a very good lineup regardless of who plays at third base, so as long as he's not terrible, he'll provide value.
Also, one year deals are always good investments. This is more true of a team who doesn't have loads of money like the Yankees, but the same principle applies to rich teams. Regardless of how Youkilis performs, the Yankees won't regret signing him.
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