The Orioles and Their Young Stars are Spitting on Regression

Chris Davis launching a three-run homer off the Yankees' David Phelps on Saturday

I feared this would happen. The Baltimore Orioles have not come back down to earth and likely won't for the rest of the season -- not much, anyway -- after vastly overachieving in 2012. I'm certainly not an Orioles hater -- I really like this team, in fact -- but after a such a fluky 2012 season, part of me wanted them to regress to the near-.500 record they should've had last year.

While people like me looked at Baltimore's 29-9 record in one-run games as an unsustainable, once-in-a-generation outlier that wasn't indicative of the team's true performance, other people pointed to the fantastic bullpen (valid argument), Buck Showalter's managerial skills (ditto), magic (oh boy) the Orioles' grit (please stop), and their "will to win" (/barfing). It wasn't as annoying as the Trout vs. Cabrera MVP debate, but it wasn't too far behind.

People were so reluctant to admit that the Orioles were lucky. Teams with winning percentages over .700 in one-run games have been as rare as, well, teams with the same winning percentages for entire seasons. There's just too much randomness involved in games of such a close margin. Sure, having a good bullpen and a smart tactical manager are major advantages going late into games, but plenty of teams have had those two things and not come close to the .763 winning percentage Baltimore had in one-run games last year.

As a sabermetric-minded baseball consumer, I wanted the "will to win" side of the argument to (hopefully) understand this fact by witnessing major regression from the 2013 Orioles. Problem is, the 2013 Orioles have continued to be good, and even if they're average the rest of the season, they still might make the playoffs. Like I expected, confirmation bias has infected the brains of many people in the "2012 wasn't a fluke!" crowd. Here's an example. And another (out-gut!). One more.

These people are like a guy who's convinced a girl is into him even though she's done everything short of saying, "I'm not interested." "But she had this look in her eyes," he says. The Orioles' record hasn't gotten worse because they've made significant improvements this year. Last year, they were an average team playing well above their heads. This year, they're simply a good team playing just about up to their ability (47-36 actual record, 44-39 Pythagorean record).

The biggest contributor, of course, is Chris Davis, who's gone from a decent hitter with power who strikes out too much to one of the best hitters in the game with all of the power who still strikes out, just not as much.

They've also seen Manny Machado make the leap. He's now one of baseball's best young hitters and an absolute phenom defensively.

J.J. Hardy, Nate McLouth, and Adam Jones have also been having solid seasons. As a whole, Baltimore's offense is 2nd in the majors in WAR and 3rd in wOBA. They're also one of the best fielding teams.

The pitching staff has actually been pretty bad so far this season, so if they improve, this team could get close to the 93-win mark. Legitimately.

Baltimore's record in one-run games right now: 12-11. They've already lost more games in one-run contests in 2013 than they did all of last year, and we just started July. So, people who screamed "regression!" before the season have actually been correct, so far, but because the Orioles have improved their talent level so much, the regression in close games hasn't cost them.

Let me reiterate, I really like this team. Davis, Machado, Jones, and Matt Wieters (if he'd ever hit) are some of my favorite players. Camden Yards is gorgeous. In fact, I didn't even hate last year's team; I just couldn't stand the narratives surrounding it.

That's why the 2013 Orioles have also been frustrating. People still don't think the 93 wins from last season were fluky, and the continued success this year has confirmed their false claims in their heads. The Orioles have been building a quality roster for years and are now experiencing the results of good draft picks, trades, and signings.

This is the first season of a prolonged run of excellent baseball in Baltimore. Not last season. It's OK to admit your team got lucky in 2012, Orioles fans. You got to enjoy a playoff team, regardless of how fortunate they were. From the looks of it, that will be one of many Baltimore playoff teams in the '10s.