We've heard this argument countless times before.
Traditional stat guy says, "RBIs are good! ... Run production! ... Clutch hitting! ... No fear!"
Advanced stat guy counters, "RBIs are pointless! ... A product of teammates getting on base! ... Clutch hitting is a myth!"
Both guys win the argument in their own minds, but in reality, nobody wins. Progress takes another punch to the gut, begging its captors for mercy.
This argument has popped up again this season because of Brandon Phillips, who has a career-high 99 RBIs (fifth in the majors) through Tuesday, Sept. 3 while the rest of his numbers have been mediocre, at best. Phillips yelled at a Reds reporter last week, apparently because the reporter, C. Trent Rosecrans, sent out a tweet criticizing the Reds for putting Phillips and his low OBP in the second spot of the batting order. Phillips' tirade was music to the ears of traditional stat backers who think it's ridiculous to criticize a player who's driven in that many runs. Rosecrans was providing a similar melodic tune to the ears of sabermetric folk, who disregard RBIs and think Phillips is overrated because of that stat.
The truth is, Phillips hasn't simply been overrated. In his eight full seasons in the major leagues, this season might be the worst one he's ever had from the plate.
The traditional stat crowd is obviously going to point to Phillips' high number of RBIs and hold that stance firmly. What's interesting about Phillips, though, is that his RBI total is probably the only batting statistic any baseball fan would say has been good this year.
Look at his other more traditional numbers in 2013 (through Tuesday): .267 batting average, 17 home runs, four stolen bases, 72 runs scored. To put those in context, compare them to his stats from the seven other full seasons in his career.
Besides his .261 average in 2008, Phillips has hit at least .275 since 2006 (his first full season).
His 17 HR total is actually right in line with his per season rate, so it would be unfair to say he's fallen off in that category. That said, unless he hits a bunch of dingers in these final 23 games, his HR total compared to the rest of the league will be nothing more than pedestrian. And that's before you factor in the ballpark he plays in, which is a holy land for power hitters.
It isn't surprising to see that Phillips' stolen base numbers have gone down the past four seasons, considering he's an aging player in his 30s, but he still averaged 15 steals in the three seasons leading up to this one. Unless he channels his inner Billy Hamilton these next few weeks, people will look at Phillips' steals total and think, "Man, he's lost a ton of speed."
His runs scored figure will probably increase by the end of the season, so we shouldn't judge Phillips in that category just yet. But it's going to be hard for him to score if he doesn't get on base*. As Rosecrans noted, Phillips isn't so hot in the OBP department (.316 through Tuesday), but like most of Phillips' numbers this year, his OBP has been even worse than it's typically looked during his career. The only time he's had an OBP below .321 with the Reds other than this season was in 2008.
*By the way, can we stop lumping OBP in with other sabermetrics? Just because Billy Beane and
Phillips has upped his BB% from last year, but at 5.8%, he's still well below average in that area. He's rarely -- if ever -- been an elite hitter, but he's usually performed better than this with the bat. Phillips hasn't put up a wRC+ this low since 2008, either, nor has he struck out as much since then (2008 wasn't his best offensive year, to say the least). He's never had a lower slugging percentage or wOBA during any season with Cincinnati, and his ISO is dangerously close to hitting that "lowest ever" mark.
Whether you like those numbers or more traditional ones, it's hard to find a full season in Phillips' career that's been worse than this one...
... unless you look at his RBIs. Anyone who's read or listened to a sabermetric-minded baseball journalist has probably heard them say something along these lines (like the fake advanced stat guy at the beginning of this piece): "A batter's RBIs are a product of runners getting on base in front of him." It's true. If every batter in baseball history came up to the plate without ever having teammates on base, the all-time single-season RBI leader would be Barry Bonds with 73. Baserunners are as vital to a hitter's RBI total as his bat. If you think performing well with runners in scoring position is a skill certain players like Phillips possess that others don't, you should read this. If you're still not sold, well, you're probably not reading at this point, anyway.
But regarding Phillips, specifically, let's investigate the his runners on base situation this season. Among all of his plate appearances in 2013, 438 runners have been on base for Cincinnati. Since 2006, he's only inherited more baserunners in a season twice -- 461 baserunners in 2007 and 449 in 2009. He has more than a good chance to surpass those numbers this year, especially considering Shin-Soo Choo (.415 OBP) is batting in front of him. His RBI totals in 2007 and 2009, by the way, were 94 and 98, respectively. Those, along with his 99 this year, are by far the highest in his career. Have I mentioned how much baserunners affect RBIs?
Of the 438 baserunners Phillips has inherited, 85 have scored (to be clear, not all those runs have counted as Phillips RBIs). That's also a career-high. His batting average with runners in scoring position this season is currently .349, which is near the top of league. So maybe he hasn't been great in all situations this year, but in the situations that have mattered most, he's delivered. That sentence is 100 percent factual. He's performed much better in run-producing scenarios. But that doesn't mean Phillips has a discernible skill when he comes to the plate with runners on second or third.
Here are his BA with RISP figures from every season since 2006 (his overall batting averages are in parentheses):
2006 -- .297 (.276)
2007 -- .269 (.288)
2008 -- .261 (.261)
2009 -- .291 (.276)
2010 -- .246 (.275)
2011 -- .311 (.300)
2012 -- .305 (.281)
2013 -- .349 (.269)
You could construct a narrative saying Phillips has become more clutch since 2011 because he's hit over .300 with runners in scoring position each of those seasons. I mean, it's your story. Who am I to stop you from writing it?
You could also look at eight years of evidence illustrating that Phillips hasn't consistently performed better or worse in clutch situations than he has overall (another thing: notice that he hit .269 and .291 in his 94- and 98-RBI seasons; say it with me: RBIs are a product of runners getting on base).
The last three seasons do make it seem like he's become more skilled with runners in scoring position, and maybe he has. There's a decent chance not even his teammates or coaches know if he's changed his mechanics and/or mindset in ways that have helped him perform better in those situations. If he keeps improving for years to come, this "clutch" debate surrounding Phillips will even make people like me rethink my stance. At the moment, though, his 2013 RISP average simply looks like an outlier in an otherwise normal major-league career.
Phillips has also had just 163 plate appearances with RISP, good for less than 30% of his overall plate appearances. First of all, that's a small sample size, but it also illustrates just how much Phillips has hurt his team. Sure, getting hits that drive in runs is extremely valuable, but if you're making outs during the majority of your other PAs, you're not giving your teammates chances to drive you in, thus preventing runs from scoring. In other words, for every run Phillips drives in, he's taking just as many potential runs off the board by failing to get on base. Again, this isn't an advanced concept. You need baserunners to score runs.
Phillips is by no means a bum. He's still a plus defender at a position where defense is critical and offense can be scarce. His numbers are actually better than they look simply because he plays second base.
Unfortunately, though, none of that masks the fact that Phillips is having a bad season at the plate. He's not getting on base, he's an average baserunner, he doesn't hit for much power, and he strikes out too much. He's not getting any younger, either. This might be his worst offensive season ever, but it hasn't been too far below his other seasons, so this might not be a fluky season, either. It's entirely possible he reached his peak in 2011 and he's starting to steadily decline. That might seem sad to some people, but baseball aging curves aren't very sympathetic.
Still, if Phillips' career ended today, he could look back on it as an overall success. 2013 would just be a down year in an otherwise healthy baseball life. Unless he finishes on a hitting rampage, that's how people should view this season. He might've set a career-high in RBIs, but that doesn't change the fact that he hasn't been very good. Without guys like Choo and Joey Votto constantly getting on base in front of him, everybody would realize how much Phillips has struggled. Given how bad his other numbers have been, everybody should realize this, anyway.
