Mike Trout, underrated?

I'm by no means a slave to WAR, and it's still early in the season, but check out FanGraphs's leaderboard:

1) Miguel Cabrera -- 4.4 WAR

t-2) Chris Davis -- 4.2

t-2) Carlos Gomez -- 4.2

4) Mike Trout -- 4.1

Baseball-Reference doesn't even have him in the top-10 for position players, so, again, this doesn't mean a ton, but I still find this incredible.Trout's 2013 campaign hasn't been much worse than his historic rookie season, yet he seems to be getting far less recognition.

There are plenty of logical reasons for this lack of acclaim, of course. The three guys in front of him, especially Cabrera and Davis, are having absurd seasons. Cabrera has a .456 wOBA with an absurd .361/.452/.632 slash line. Davis has been Barry Bonds without as many rubber chickens, hitting .337/.413/.720 (.468 wOBA). If Gomez took any walks, he'd basically be replicating Trout's 2012 season. 

So, Cabrera has somehow improved from the plate this season, while Davis and Gomez have come out of nowhere to put up dominant numbers. Trout has not just played below their levels, but his 2012 level, as well, so while his numbers are spectacular, they haven't stood out. 

He also plays for the Angels, who are 8 games under .500, with two highly-paid, struggling sluggers in Albert Pujols and Josh Hamilton, and an ace (Jered Weaver) who has been injured for most of the season. Trout's success has been massively overshadowed by the disappointment surrounding his team, which isn't surprising given how high expectations were in Anaheim before the season.

There's also Bryce Harper, who has been Kevin Durant to Trout's LeBron after also having a fantastic rookie season. Harper came mashing out of the gate this season, causing people to focus more on the him than Trout. Like Cabrera, Harper went from great to greater, whereas Trout has been about the same. People always gravitate more towards players who take a step forward (or a step back, like Pujols) than those who stay consistently dominant. 

It's not even insulting for people to be underrating Trout's 2013 season. All of us would rather focus on someone like Davis or Harper. It's human nature. Still, the fact that Trout is having almost as good of a season this year as he did last year -- a year that very few players in MLB history have ever approached -- is just ridiculous.

He's hitting for about the same amount of power this season, and he's still running the bases exceptionally well (3rd in Ultimate Baserunning Rating), while walking more and striking out less. His UZR is only 0.5, although I wonder if his increased playing time in left field is the main reason.* I haven't watched him enough this season to know how good of a defender he's been.

*He has less ground to cover in left, which means there are less UZR-increasing plays available for him to make, especially with defensive wizard Peter Bourjos manning center field. That might not be the reason for the low numbers, though.

It's obviously way too early to tell if Trout will finish the season with numbers as good or better than last season's. His sophomore slump might occur after July. That said, it's insane that this guy hasn't stopped producing like Willie Mays in his prime. If he keeps playing this well for the rest of the season, we will have a hard time distinguishing his performance this year from last. He also might finish second in the MVP race to Cabrera again.

Can Wil Myers lift the Rays?

On Sunday, the Tampa Bay Rays called up Wil Myers. I was going to write that it was about time the weak-hitting Rays called up one of the top hitting prospects in the league, but then I looked at the team's hitting stats.

They're tied for 1st in the majors in wRC+, they're 5th in WAR, wOBA, and BB%, 7th in ISO and HRs... whatever hitting stat you look at, the Rays are in the top 10-15 in baseball. Far from weak-hitting.

In fact, when you look at their entire team, pitching is by far the biggest reason why they're in fourth place right now. It hasn't been atrocious, but it hasn't been good, especially considering their pre-season expectations.

So, will adding a bat as potentially dynamic as Myers's make much of a difference? Well, it's a complicated situ... NO, he will not make a significant impact.

The best-case scenario is that he'll provide around 5-6 wins of value. That's if he lights the world on fire, a la Trout last season, which isn't likely. 4 wins would even be a stretch. But let's say he does get close to that level. There are 24 other factors -- his teammates -- out of his control. 

Evan Longoria is on the short list for AL MVP at this point in the season, but with his health history, it's probably safer to bet that he'll miss some time and/or play hurt than it is to expect him to keep this pace up. James Loney has been one of the biggest surprises so far this season, but given that his current WAR (1.6) is almost the highest he's ever had in a single season, expect some major regression to the Loney in the second half. I'm a little more optimistic that Ben Zobrist, Matt Joyce, Kelly Johnson, and Desmond Jennings will either continue hitting or get better, but they're probably 3-win players, at best, when it's all said and done.

Jennings might actually be a good comp for Myers. Jennings was also a top outfield prospect for the Rays, and he had a very nice rookie season in 2011, netting 2.3 WAR in just 287 plate appearances. Myers will likely play more than that, so if he can approach Jennings's .259/.358/.449 line over these next four months, he'll be an upgrade over anyone besides Longoria.

But that won't make a difference if his teammates regress like I mentioned above. Sure, if he's worth 2-4 wins more than the guy he replaces, he might be the difference between a playoff team and a team that just misses, but that would have to coincide with sustained success from his fellow batters and huge improvement from the pitching staff. The division is too good for them to be average or worse in one of those areas.

Then, there's the very realistic chance that Myers barely produces. None of us know if he'll make any impact in the big leagues, much less an immediate impact. 

Like I said, if he plays anywhere near his potential, the Rays might get the extra boost they need to win a close division or wild card race. But he's not going to turn the current 36-33 team into a juggernaut all by himself. The Rays are going to need every pitcher not named Alex Cobb or Joel Peralta to improve and improve dramatically. The other hitters have to keep up their success, as well. As we saw with Trout last year, even a historically good season by a player on a good team doesn't guarantee a postseason appearance.